000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270843
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. A CDO FEATURE HAS
DEVELOPED RECENTLY...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE BENEATH THE
CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. NOW
THAT RAYMOND HAS DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAYMOND
COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE EXPERIENCES MODERATE SHEAR...MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
BEGINS TO INGEST AIR FROM A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH.
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RAYMOND HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/09. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND RETREATS
WESTWARD...RAYMOND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AND SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FASTER IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND
AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
AS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND DECOUPLES FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES RAYMOND FARTHER NORTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE ECMWF IS WELL
EAST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS A FASTER RECURVATURE
AS IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THIS CYCLE AS WELL...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WITH RAYMOND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN 2 TO 3
DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION
SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE NHC FORECAST STOPS SHORT OF TAKING
RAYMOND AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND IN AN
EFFORT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 13.5N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.2N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 16.1N 117.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 17.0N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN