000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262034 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013 THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH THE CENTER TUCKED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND...WITH CONVECTION RECENTLY ON THE INCREASE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET CHANGED APPRECIABLY...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT. IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY RAYMOND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...BUT AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD ALSO PORTEND ANOTHER STRENGTHENING EPISODE...GIVEN INNER CORE FEATURES SEEN ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. AFTER THE WEEKEND...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN NOTABLY FROM SIX HOURS AGO WITH NO RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING RAYMOND BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN. GIVEN HOW RELUCTANT RAYMOND HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN...THE NHC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT MODEL TREND...BUT STAY AT OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TO PRESERVE SOME CONTINUITY. RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SOON AFTERWARD WHILE IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF A RIDGE. AFTER RECURVATURE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE IS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO A MUCH-WEAKENED RAYMOND. A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOTION IS THE BEST IDEA...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT RAYMOND WILL LIKELY BE A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT LONG RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.2N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.8N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 14.7N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.8N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 17.1N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE