000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261455 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013 THE DEEP CONVECTION OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF A DEVELOPING INNER CORE. OF COURSE...THAT IS WHAT THE INTERPRETATION OF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS YESTERDAY AS WELL...AND YET THE STORM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED. THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES REMAIN AT 3.5 AND 3.0...OR 55 AND 45 KT... RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT IS AT 43 KT AND CIMSS AMSU IS AT 50 KT. A BLEND OF THESE GIVES THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE 0926Z AMSU PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT OUTWARD OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII FROM THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSES. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD AS A ROBUST MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO TURN RAYMOND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE MODELS FASTEST WITH RECURVATURE... SUCH AS THE ECMWF...HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING RAYMOND. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WHEN RAYMOND IS LIKELY TO BE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER EASTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH 28C WATER...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ONLY IDENTIFIABLE FACTOR SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS THE WARM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY WITH RAYMOND PEAKING AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABRUPTLY INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LESS CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD LEAD TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING DECOUPLED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ADVECTING OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND DAY FOUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWFI...DSHP...AND GFSI MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.7N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.4N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 15.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA