000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260840 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH THE COLDEST TOPS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT RESULTED IN MUCH INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAYMOND IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/11. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF RAYMOND WILL BE AT PEAK STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO RECURVATURE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED AS RAYMOND DECOUPLES FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THIS CYCLE... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NHC TRACK REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.1N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 13.1N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.3N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 14.0N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 15.1N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 17.1N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN