000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260251
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...
WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN TIP.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALSO PREVAILS OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A
BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 45 KT.
 
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
245/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N
120W SHIFTS EASTWARD. WHEN RAYMOND REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SAME
RIDGE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN A NORTHWARD TURN
ARE EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
APPROACH OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO BY 96 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART.
AFTER THAT.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  
 
THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY HAS BEEN BAFFLING...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING
RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST. WITH SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWING GENERALLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RAYMOND IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO SEPARATE BY 96 HOURS.  RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING TREND IN 72 TO 120 HOURS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 12.9N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 12.9N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 14.1N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 16.5N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN