000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND 55 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 50 KT...BUT DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THIS
MIGHT BE GENEROUS. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS STILL PREDICTED. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE SOME SCATTER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT 240/7.  RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
MOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION SINCE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF RAYMOND COULD BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF 18-20N LATITUDE. 
THAT IS THE SCENARIO WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 13.4N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 13.4N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 13.6N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 14.1N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 16.2N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH