000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251455 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013 INFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT ADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND RAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL... GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE. RAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS MOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY... THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS. AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE FACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA