000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250846
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TONIGHT. WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN
04Z AND 05Z INDICATE THAT RAYMOND IS WEAKER THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO ASCAT PASSES SHOWED ONLY A FEW 35-40 KT WIND BARBS EAST OF
THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS...AS RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...
BUT STILL SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID. 

THE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION
OF 260/09. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE SHORT
TERM...AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
RAYMOND WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO THE
ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...WITH LARGE RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THIS TROUGH EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY AND RECURVE
RAYMOND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY DAY 5. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT RAYMOND
WILL BE A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TRACK ONLY A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC
TRACK AT THESE TIMES IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 14.2N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 13.9N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 13.5N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 16.5N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN