000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250233
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013

RAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE
CHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT
THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE
ALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY
DECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING
SHOULD THEN BEGIN. 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP
RAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4
AND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE
SHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR
SO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
STEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA