000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242043
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER OF
RAYMOND...BUT APPARENTLY HAVE NOT RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION
YET WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT
35 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ASCAT AND 45-KT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB SINCE
THE ASCAT DID NOT COVER THE WHOLE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR
RAYMOND...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER-SHEAR PATTERN.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL JOINING THE GFDL IN FORECASTING RAYMOND TO BECOME A HURRICANE
AGAIN.  WHILE I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BELIEVE THOSE MODELS
VERBATIM...I THINK THEY HAVE THE RIGHT TREND GIVEN THE EVOLVING
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS RAISED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL. 
WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY COMMENCE BY DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS. 
 
THE ASCAT PASS HELPED TO SOLIDIFY AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
270/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO A RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE ON ITS OWN IN FORECASTING A RECURVATURE OF RAYMOND
EAST OF 119W AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENDING UP MUCH FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN ANY OTHER
MODEL BY DAY 5.  THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT IS STILL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK
FORECAST.  FOR NOW THE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF LATER RUNS OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 14.8N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 14.6N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 14.2N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 13.7N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 13.4N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 13.5N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 15.0N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 16.5N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE