000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241448 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013 A BURSTING PATTERN OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER OF RAYMOND DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND EARLY-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT DEFINITIVELY SHOW THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 35-45 KT AS A CURRENT WIND SPEED...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INITIAL POSITION I HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP 40 KT AS THE INTENSITY. RAYMOND SEEMS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH NO SIGN OF THE SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST A RETURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF RAYMOND. THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN SHOWING A SHARP RECURVATURE OF THE CYCLONE BY 120W...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING SINGLE MODEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON...IT SEEMS WISE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS COME OUT BEFORE MAKING ANY LONG-RANGE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION...BETWEEN TVCE AND THE ECMWF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERPLEXING THIS MORNING. WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATER...NONE OF THEM SAVE THE GFDL SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR AND SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS...BUT THESE DO NOT SEEM NEGATIVE ENOUGH TO CAP STRENGTHENING THAT MUCH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE FORECAST HAD TO BE RAISED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.8N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 14.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE