000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240843
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS BEEN
EXPANDING...IT IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO
WESTERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 40 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING THAT TOOK PLACE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MIGHT BE ENDING. THE WESTERLY SHEAR
THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
RAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RAYMOND COULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
RAYMOND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN A TROUGH ERODES
THE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. THE REASON FOR THE SPREAD
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH
OF RAYMOND. THE GFS SHOWS A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND THE
LATEST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THAT MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS AID...TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 14.7N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.6N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 14.1N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 13.7N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 13.5N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI