000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231444 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS TRANSITION WELL...WITH RAYMOND BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS BROUGHT DOWN TO 50 KT...ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT TIME...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW ENOUGH GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITION OF THE STORM. THEREAFTER...SOME RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE DUE TO DECREASING SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD...ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER DAY 3...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DELAYING THIS TURN A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PROBABLY DUE TO MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN RAYMOND AND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST WERE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 14.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 13.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 14.2N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 16.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE