000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230832 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A LITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED APPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL AIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. RAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT REMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI