000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230244
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
 
ALTHOUGH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
THE WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING RAYMOND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LATEST
GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS ALL WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A LOW-END
TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS.  MEANWHILE...THE ECWMF...GFS...AND
SHIPS MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION SINCE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN A FEW DAYS.
 
FIXES FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RAYMOND HAS
CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.  THE
HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT
A MORE PRONOUNCED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE BY TOMORROW MORNING.  RAYMOND SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THERE IS NOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECST TRACK THAN THERE HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. 
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
RAYMOND TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCE.
 
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE THREAT
OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING....THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 101.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 15.9N 102.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.7N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.5N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 15.3N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 14.8N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN