000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222039 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAYMOND IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WHILE THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT AT 700 MB...DROPSONDE DATA SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE NOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SEEN TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...A LITTLE BELOW THE TYPICAL RATIO OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND AFTER A LITTLE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE RAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WHILE RAYMOND DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE MOTION IS EXECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT AFTER THAT TIME A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY 5 A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAYMOND TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.3N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.9N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.7N 104.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.3N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN