000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221441
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
 
THE CLOUD PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AS
THE COVERAGE AND SYMMETRY OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DECREASED. ALSO...A 1032Z SSM/I PASS SHOWED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800Z TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF
THE INTENSITY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
 
RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST
AND WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEGINNING BY 24 HOURS. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 16.5N 101.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 16.2N 102.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 16.0N 103.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 16.0N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN