000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220833 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013 THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION. ASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT COMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH