000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220233
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
 
THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT.  HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT. 
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN