000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212036 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO PERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE TODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB AND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND RAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL. RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN