000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210845 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013 RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED. RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA