000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210301 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT. GIVEN THE MUCH IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48 HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS. GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN