000 WTPZ42 KNHC 202049 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND. A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS... WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST... REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN