000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201436
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER
CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR
EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...
STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME.
WHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND
OFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN