000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200833 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS... THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS... ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA