000
WTPZ42 KNHC 072032
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES. BARRING A SERIOUS COMEBACK IN THE CONVECTION...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY
STABLE AIR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT
3 KT AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS LIKELY AS
THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTANT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN A DAY OR SO. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 23.9N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 24.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 24.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE