000
WTPZ42 KNHC 071432
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013
 
A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA...
PROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE
CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY.  AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT
SHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.  THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.   LORENA WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN
RATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.  THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS
LITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE