000
WTPZ42 KNHC 062031
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013
 
CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR HAS BEEN USEFUL IN TRACKING THE CENTER OF
LORENA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWING IT PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CENTER HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DEFINED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED REPORT FROM CABO
PULMO HAD SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KT A FEW HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT. 
WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN BY TOMORROW DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND SOME LAND INTERACTION.  
THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR
OR BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  LORENA SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE MODELS
REALIZING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT IN WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE MODEL TREND.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND LAND
INTERACTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.8N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.4N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 23.9N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 24.2N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE