000 WTPZ42 KNHC 061439 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013 RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF LORENA IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SOME BANDING IS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENA INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 H. AFTER THAT TIME... ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE IT IS SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH...LORENA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND/OR DISSIPATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE DONE A FINE JOB ON ANTICIPATING THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING. LORENA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE...315/10. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED....AND AS THE STORM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD. THE PRIMARY DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE GETS BEFORE IT DECOUPLES VERTICALLY. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF FORECASTS WHICH SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY LYING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 25.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN