000 WTPZ42 KNHC 060900 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013 LORENA IS DISPLAYING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THESE HAVE QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE ADT VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS TWO SHIPS NEAR THE CENTER DO NOT SUGGEST A WELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. STANDARD INFRARED...SHORTWAVE INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS EVENING ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH A MORE THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. LORENA IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AFTER INTERACTION WITH LAND...LORENA SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PRIMARILY BASED UPON THE GFS..GFS ENSEMBLE..AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LORENA DOES HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TIME IS RUNNING SHORT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS TRAVERSING SSTS OF 29C. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA WILL BE IMPACTED BY BAJA CALIFORNIA AND RESTRICT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS..AND HWRF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ALTERNATIVE...BUT UNLIKELY SCENARIO...IS FOR LORENA TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 21.3N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 23.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 24.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA