000
WTPZ42 KNHC 051439
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGEST 30-35 KT...AND BECAUSE OF THE POOR SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL
STRUCTURE AND THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO
KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM INTENSIFYING TOO QUICKLY. WHILE THE
STATISTICAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION
BECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE LATEST FORECAST IS KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME THE
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STAYS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.0N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 21.4N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 22.3N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 22.9N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE