000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060232
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING...SOME BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INDEED...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL SHOWS GIL REGAINING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...THE NHC
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THAT AND MERELY SHOWS GIL
MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL FORECAST.

LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...AND A FIX FROM AN
EARLIER TRMM IMAGE...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD
THE WEST AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/8.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF GIL SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

GIL HAS JUST MOVED WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GIL CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO
AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.  FUTURE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ON GIL CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 13.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 13.2N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 13.1N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 13.3N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 13.6N 145.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 14.5N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 14.5N 152.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 14.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH