000
WTPZ42 KNHC 052031
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 10
HOURS OR SO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GIL. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ASSUMING
THAT THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GIL CHANGING
LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 27C...AND WITHIN MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GIL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SAME AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN LOW TO
MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GIL WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 13.2N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 12.9N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 12.6N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 12.6N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 12.8N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z 13.5N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 14.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI