000
WTPZ42 KNHC 051433
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
 
GIL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-12
HOURS TO RESET THE REMNANT LOW CLOCK BACK TO ZERO...AND A PAIR OF
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 07Z SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WINDS OF
25-30 KT.  THE ASCAT PASSES WERE ALSO HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING THE
CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT 250/7...AND
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION.

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AND THE
UNDERLYING SSTS OF 27C COULD SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
ROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR GIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE 
SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY REGAINING TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DELAYS DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW UNTIL TOMORROW. 

THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE
CURRENT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION...
GIL WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY PACKAGE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 13.4N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.0N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.6N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 12.5N 142.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 12.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z 13.5N 151.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 14.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN