000
WTPZ42 KNHC 042057
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF GIL MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  GIL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO STABLE AIR NEAR THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT SHEAR. 
THERE REMAINS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN A
FEW DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT
IS DOUBTFUL THE SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THAT LONG.  THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE
REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRACK
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 14.2N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 13.2N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 12.7N 140.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 12.3N 145.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z 12.4N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z 12.5N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE