000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041432
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

A SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.  OTHERWISE...THE DEPRESSION IS
MOSTLY COMPRISED OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.  SATELLTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 30 KT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH STABLE AIR AND SHEAR NEAR GIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT
TIME.  WHILE THE LGEM/SHIPS/GFDL ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY
RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
GIL BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...250/8.  
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
GIL ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD
FLATTEN OUT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERHAPS CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD
TURN.  THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GUIDANCE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AT 96 AND 120H.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 138.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 12.9N 139.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 12.4N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 12.0N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 12.0N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 12.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE