000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030842
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT...IT LACKS
BANDING FEATURES AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING APART. THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 50 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
MODERATE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...SLOW WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
 
GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...DUE IN PART TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW GIL INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 14.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.0N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 14.8N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 14.5N 135.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 13.3N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 13.0N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 13.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI