000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022032
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. GIL CONSISTS OF AN
IRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVOID OF BANDING FEATURES WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW. SINCE THE SATELLITE INTENISTY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HOSTILE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL BEGIN TO
APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.
 
THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES
EARLIER...BUT WITH THE HELP OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...WE HAVE
DETERMINED THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE VERTICALLY
DISPLACED...BUT STILL EMBEDDED OR VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY LEAD TO AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A
WELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW...AND SINCE THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 14.6N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.7N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 14.7N 133.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA