000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021433
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN
RULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS
PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING
OVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS. 

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS...BUT GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS AND THAT IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...GIL
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.    

THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES BUT 
RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT GIL IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MUCH LARGER
BEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH SEVERAL MODELS TAKING GIL TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND OTHER MODELS FORECASTING GIL TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 14.6N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.5N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.5N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 14.5N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 13.5N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA