000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020854
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013
 
GIL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE DEGRADED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...BUT
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WHEN GIL MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A
HEADING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 14.6N 127.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 14.9N 130.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 15.0N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI