000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020235
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
AND 77 KT FROM SAB.  DUE TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 75 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER.  GIL IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS
SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.  ONE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO NOW SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BETWEEN
DAYS 4-5...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...THE
ECMWF...AND THE GFS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING INTENSITIES 10-20 KT STRONGER AT ALL FORECAST TIMES
THAN THOSE FROM 6 HR AGO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
NOT TOTALLY FOLLOW THIS CHANGE...BUT IT WILL SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT...GIL IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH COOLER SSTS NEAR 140W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST INCREASES THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INTENSITIES BY 5-10 KT...IT LIES WELL BELOW THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 14.4N 126.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 14.5N 127.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 14.7N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 14.7N 132.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.5N 135.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN