000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011437
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 OR 18 HOURS
AGO...AND THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO
LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAINED UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION
APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING...GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE
COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GIL.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HWRF MODEL THAT DELAYS THE WEAKENING BY A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD...AND THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL NOT AFFECT THE
MOTION OF GIL TOO MUCH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK
MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS THAT BOTH DEPICT
A WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 14.5N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.9N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.0N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 15.2N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA