000 WTPZ42 KNHC 312033 TCDEP2 HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...CDO. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. ON THIS BASIS...GIL HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GIL TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 OR 48 HOURS. GIL HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GIL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TURNING GIL MORE TO THE WEST BEYOND 3 DAYS. A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH GIL WHICH IN FACT IS A SMALL HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA