000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. 
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.  IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF
WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE
REDEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA
MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 16.2N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 17.3N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 18.8N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0600Z 19.3N  94.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH