000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012
 
THE END APPEARS TO BE NEAR FOR ROSA.  THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUE
TO BE SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS.   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF ROSA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SO
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12
HOURS...OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN ONLY
24 HOURS.
 
ROSA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3.  MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST...AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 12.7N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 12.9N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z 13.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 13.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 13.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 14.6N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH