000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021436
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012
 
ROSA IS SLOWLY LOSING THE BATTLE WITH SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH
OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE STORM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
NHC FORECAST.

ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE STORM CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE ON
THE FUTURE COURSE OF ROSA...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD PATH.
ONLY THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE OUTLIERS NOW...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE
PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST GIVEN THEIR LONG-TERM BIASES IN
THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...GENERALLY WITH A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AT MOST FORECAST
POINTS...AND LIES A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 13.2N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.0N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.1N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.4N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 14.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 16.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE