000
WTPZ42 KNHC 181440
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
 
THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.

STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART