000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171441 TCDEP2 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012 AN EYE WAS APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT HAS SINCE BEEN OBSCURED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO LANE WILL BE OVER WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER... IN 24 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE SYSTEM SHOULD COOL TO LESS THAN 24 DEG C...SO STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS. LANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 330/9. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF LANE SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE LATTER PART. THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.7N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 19.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 20.7N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.4N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH