000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170240 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL INNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE INCREASED TO 60 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP DECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN DAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C. SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8. THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. A SHARP WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH 72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE