000
WTPZ42 KNHC 151449
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO
BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION
IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN
ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT
SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA